Pedro Fierro

Pedro Fierro

Work in Progress

2024

Social Capital and Voting Behaviour in the United States

Social capital has traditionally been viewed as a fundamental driver of democratic vitality. However, since the late-20th century, it has been suggested that social capital may also have adverse effects, potentially fostering totalitarian and populist ideologies. This paper examines the political implications of two different types of social capital —bonding social capital and bridging social capital—, using the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections as a case study. By examining at the county level, we find that the relation between social capital and antisystem voting behaviour is contingent upon the type of social capital involved. Bonding social capital, characterised by close-knit, homogeneous networks, is positively correlated with antisystem behaviours, as proxied by the additional electoral support for Donald Trump. In contrast, bridging social capital, which involves connections across diverse social groups, shows a negative correlation. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a complex interaction between economic and demographic changes, social integration, and political tendencies in a period of economic transition. These findings underscore the multifaceted nature of social capital and its critical role in understanding its origins and effects.

2023

Feeling the Split: Territorial Divide and Political Emotions in the Chilean Constituent Processes (2022-2023)

This study analyses the influence of territorial marginalisationin shaping negative political emotions. Focusingon the Chilean Constituent Processes of 2022 and 2023, the research examinestwo waves of face-to-face surveys conducted in the Valparaíso region of Chile, with a combined sample size of 3,324. The findings reveal that individuals living in urban areas distant from the political centreexhibit markedly negative emotions towards the proceedings of the constitutional conventions. Employing a discrete emotions methodology, the analysis indicates a higher likelihood of intensified feelings of distrust, uncertainty, and confusion among residents of peripheral areas in relation to both constituent processes, the first linked to the left-wing and the second to the right-wing.Therefore, the resultsmake two significant contributions to the field. First, it broadens the scope of research on the geography of discontent, which has traditionally focused on voting patterns, by demonstrating that territorial disparities affect underlying elements such as feelings and attitudes. In a context marked by intense centralisation, this research uniquely highlights territorial division as the sole consistently negative emotive factor throughout both processes, maintaining its significance and direction. Secondly, the study illuminates potential factors shaping public perception during a pivotal societal moment in Chile. This country holds a unique distinction in the global context for having rejected two distinct constitutional proposals via plebiscite, marking an exceptional event in the realms of political transformation and civic participation. Regrettably, spatial and geographical dimensions are often overlooked as influential elements in public discourse.

Identifying gatekeepers in the allocation of public funds: a spatial econometric analysis

This paper examines the role of spatial and political factors in the allocation of discretionary public goods, contributing notably to the study of distributive politics in two ways. First, the concept of proximity is redefined by incorporating a political dimension into the spatial neighborhood matrix, thus extending traditional method- ologies of spatial econometrics. Second, the application of this method in the Chilean context reveals that senators, as opposed to local authorities, are the principal gate- keepers in the allocation of non-programmatic resources. This finding is significant, overshadowing factors such as poverty, population size, and the alignment of mayors with the central government. Given the substantial political capital held by senators, the results indicate that political hierarchy plays a crucial role in influencing resource distribution.

Marginalisation and Engagement: Exploring Political Knowledge and Self-Competence Beliefs in Neglected Areas

Recent research indicates the existence of “places that don’t matter”, where residents often harbour feelings of abandonment, prompting a tilt towards anti-establishment, populist, or nationalist narratives. Yet, the effects of territorial marginalisation extend beyond mere voting behaviour, influencing deeper underlying factors. Utilising data from 9,924 cases in the Valparaíso region of Chile, this study reveals that living in politically marginalised cities correlates with reduced political knowledge and internal political efficacy, even when accounting for relevant sociodemographic and other variables. By focusing on territorial marginalisation, this analysis offers a fresh perspective on the interplay between individual sociodemographic characteristics and political engagement.

How Different Patterns of Online Participation Reflect Internal, External, and Online Efficacy: The Case of Chile

Recent research extensively examines the impact of political efficacy on online and offline civic engagement, but those studies often overlook the multifaceted types of civic engagement. This study addresses this gap by investigating the association between internal, external, and online political efficacy with the different types of online civic engagement, using Chile as a case study. Using Latent Class Analysis, we identify five patterns of online political participants (clicktivist, super, disengaged, selective, and expressive citizens). Subsequently, we explore the relationship between internal, external, and online political efficacy with the five patterns of online participants. Multinomial logistic regressions reveal that internal efficacy exhibits no significant relationship with online political participation. In turn, external efficacy is associated with a higher probability of being a super and expressive citizen, and online efficacy is associated with a higher probability of being a super, expressive, or clicktivist citizen. These findings shed light on the complex relationship between political efficacy and online civic engagement, highlighting the impact of measurement choices on the observed relationship between these variables in prior studies.

Measuring Frustration and Resentment in Politics: The Case of Chile 2017-2022

Political malaise and political attitudes have been highly studied for the last 60 years. Currently, however, there is a renewed interest in understanding the phenomenon through different disciplines. The rise of populist and nationalist narratives in consolidated and emergent democracies has justified studies about underlying individual and territorial elements. Thus, it is usually stated that those citizens who live in certain places—that have experienced an economic decline—are more likely to feel anger and powerless, which impact electoral preferences. In this context, our work offers a methodological proposal to study this phenomenon. Using 9,900 face-to-face cases collected between 2017 and 2022 in the Chilean region of Valparaiso, we build two variables to distinguish between the feeling flow (frustration) and the accumulative sentiment (resentment) in political disaffection. Thus, this paper seeks to contribute to the literature by identifying in a better way the different elements of malaise, including the temporal dimension. At the same time, this contribution would help us to determine some tools to face this phenomenon.